UFC 202: Nate Diaz vs. Conor McGregor 2 – Why It’s a Pick ‘Em Fight

Photo by Armando Romo

This weekend’s UFC pay-per-view will be just the second MMA event that the organization holds in the brand new T- MOBILE arena in Las Vegas. The featured bout of the evening is in the welterweight division where 145-pound champion, Conor McGregor, opted to revisit in order to avenge his only UFC loss to mixed martial arts antihero, Nate Diaz.  In retrospect, even the notion of a possible rematch to their initial encounter back in March would have seemed asinine since during that time McGregor stormed through the UFC as a raging tornado of violence. All but one of his UFC bouts ended in KO victories and not one of those stoppages made it past the 2nd Round. This unprecedented level of dominance continually made him a heavy betting favorite in each outing.  The night of UFC 196 McGregor had moved to a 6-1 favorite over Diaz having initially opened at just above 2-1. Meaning that allot of money came in on Conor during the weeks leading up to that match. Fast forward five months later and the highly anticipated “Part 2” of their rivalry has the sports books’ figures as this being a 50-50 fight.

It’s amazing how one simple loss can completely change the perception of a fighter.

On any given night gods can become mortal men following failures in the lucrative business known as, “the fight game”.  Actually, on that same token, it is amazing how fast a normal man or woman’s face can be etched into immortality with accomplishments inside that same cage or ring. How we got to this rematch on Saturday is a strange story in it of itself, an emotional rollercoaster ride triggered by a hat trick of injuries.

Less than half a year ago,  “The Notorious” Conor McGregor (19-3) collided with Nate Diaz (20-10) at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas as the headliner to UFC 196. However, the original main event for UFC 196 was Fabricio Werdum defending his heavyweight belt in a rematch opposite Cain Velasquez. Velasquez suffered an injury two weeks prior to the show and was forced to step away. The UFC tried to save the PPV by penciling in Stipe Miocic. The very next day Werdum pulled out due to injury and it had barely been announced that the Brazilian warrior would defend against Miocic therefore; the heavyweight tilt was removed from UFC 196 altogether. UFC regrouped from the colossal dent to that February PPV card by repackaging it as a free Fight Night on Fox Sports 1 headlined by Johny Hendricks vs. Stephen Thompson. That Hendricks vs Thompson bout was the co-main event of Werdum vs. Velasquez 2 therefore the welterweights were ready to go leaving fans relatively happy for the time being.

Photo by Armando Romo

That February raucous made the originally proposed UFC 197 headliner of Rafael dos Anjos vs. Conor McGregor to be renumbered to UFC 196: dos Anjos vs. McGregor.  Nonetheless, the third of the injuries in the aforementioned trifecta, a broken foot in training to then lightweight champion dos Anjos, forced him to step out as the headliner of the “new” UFC 196 show.  This happened sadly enough just 10 days out from the show prompting a panic by UFC fans and management while Twitter and Facebook were on fire and every MMA outlet left heartbroken that the “champion vs. champion” super fight would not be taking place.

Then, things went from confusing and sporadic to very, very exciting (as tends to happen in the world of MMA). The reason being is because word was that the line to fight “The Notorious” McGregor rivaled that of Starbucks on Monday morning. Everyone from living legends, to former champions and fan favorites signed up to get a piece; BJ Penn, Anthony “Showtime” Pettis, Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone and Urijah Faber were amongst the thrilling list of volunteers.

In what is seemingly a Hollywood blockbuster twist, the UFC announced that fan favorite, Nate Diaz, accepted the fight on 10-days’ notice and would also honor McGregor’s offer to fight at 170-pounds so that Nate was not drained from making weight.  The press conference alone announcing the welterweight battle generated YouTube views through the roof. On top of that, Diaz had called McGregor out last December following his unanimous decision upset of Michael Johnson and that trash talk flooded post-fight interview effortlessly tied into the McGregor vs. Diaz storyline. Diaz ultimately accused the Irish MMA rock star, behind some explicit language of course, of borrowing his material, plagiarizing his trash talk and marketing the Diaz Brothers’ patented verbal warfare as his own.  He challenged McGregor to the “big money fight” and it worked like a charm, for that McGregor fight Nate Diaz was guaranteed $500,000; more than his last 4 bouts combined.

March 5^th of 2016 came and the UFC 196 headliner did not disappoint for one second. The two bitter rivals banged it out in a good ol’ fashioned stand up slugfest. Slick defense and offensive technique were left in both men’s locker rooms while they threw power punch after punch, various combinations and snuck in a kick or two.  The night couldn’t have gotten any better. The PPV delivered as it was billed and both men were bloodied up and battered going into the 2^ndRound after taking each other’s best shots.

Then the unimaginable happened.

LAS VEGAS, NV – MARCH 05: Nate Diaz reacts to his victory over Conor McGregor of Ireland in their welterweight bout during the UFC 196 event inside MGM Grand Garden Arena on March 5, 2016 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)

During a back-and-forth exchange McGregor’s hands got lazy and he brought his fists to his waist rather than back up to his guard. The Stockton representative landed a clean straight shot that crash-landed on the chin of McGregor and he was visibly stunned. The tide drastically turned and Diaz saw the opening, pouring it on with combo after combo as McGregor tried to rally back but took too much punishment in the process. The Irishman shot in for a double leg take down, Diaz sprawled, wrapped up a guillotine then transitioned to mount before taking his foe’s back.  McGregor was trapped and had two options; tap or nap. He went with the former and in the biggest upset inside the Octagon this year Nate Diaz took home the 2^nd round rear naked choke victory.  All of McGregor’s UFC matches that had a finish in them didn’t go past the 2^nd stanza; this statistic still rang true even when he was on the negative side of that equation.

From the post-fight press conference to the post-fight shows all that anyone could say from casual fan to analyst was, “when is the rematch?”  Some kinks needed to be worked out and hope seemed all but lost when the second chapter of McGregor vs. Diaz could not be booked for one reason or another.  They were targeted for the UFC 200 last month.  McGregor opted out of a press conference and then announced his retirement.  Diaz followed suit tweeting it out just like his foe had in the same fashion.  Some days later McGregor seemed to be on board but now it was Nate who wasn’t happy with his contract. The match was pulled from UFC 200 and luckily rescheduled to UFC 202 this weekend in the same city and same arena that they were scheduled to meet for the sequel.

With all of that being said; the announcement by McGregor of his early retirement, him accepting a movie deal for Triple X with Vin Diesel then canceling his involvement completely, trading verbal jabs with retired boxer, Floyd Mayweather Jr. on social media teasing a crossover mega-fight, going at WWE professional wrestlers last Friday at his mini-press conference, it has made fans of the sport and of betting reload on the Nate Diaz money train simply due to the featherweight champion’s  nutty behavior-even for him .  Conor McGregor was a 2-1 favorite for the UFC 200 fight but immediately dropped once the line opened in Las Vegas and people jumped on the profit to be made on Nate. Even with the rescheduling of the match from July 9^th to late august, there has been no bump in the last month or this week indicating that even those in “the know” like McGregor or have been lured in by the  incredible betting value on such a highly skilled fighter if currently a $1.20 makes you $1.00 profit.

Photo by Armando Romo

Conor is handling his 4th UFC PPV inside of 13 months and while it’s obviously not his first headliner it’s the first time that the Irishman will face true adversity and a legitimate concern from pundits regarding his previously unquestioned invincibility.  On the other hand, Nate Diaz proved what he is capable of doing with less than a paycheck’s notice so faith in him to capture lighting in in a bottle once again is only amplified by him having plenty of time to prepare for McGregor. That same belief in the Californian is then compounded by the mental edge he’ll have this weekend knowing that he already beat one of the most talented men to ever compete in the UFC.  This weekend’s show from the T-MOBILE Arena in Las Vegas is headlining by Nate Diaz vs. Conor McGregor 2, a 170-pound fight where there is a legitimate 50/50 shot that your favorite fighter will in this intriguing pick ‘em fight, and that type of a closely contested match-up is 100% reason to tune in for the UFC 202 PPV.