UFC on Fox Henderson vs Diaz preview

Tomorrow night on Fox, the UFC is offering up a card that would qualify as a stacked PPV. The building of these Fox cards has been a difficult path to follow. Though it is hard to question the business path of the men behind Zuffa’s meteoric rise, I wrote an article imploring them to make Henderson/Rua their first Fox telecast. I bring that up not for a pat on the back but as a prelude to saying that this is the first main event since then that I think guarantees a lengthy and action packed bout that can serve as a perfect showcase to casual viewers.

Ben Henderson took the hard road to the Lightweight title, battling underrated guys like Donald Cerrone & Anthony Pettis in the WEC before coming over and handling the best the UFC had to offer to claim the strap in the MMA’s worlds most stacked division. Ben is a high caliber wrestler with great striking, ridiculous submission defense and stamina for days. In facing Nate Diaz I have to think that his key to victory is takedowns and that submission defense though he would be wise not to let Diaz sink in chokes like he has many of his opponents.

Nate Diaz has not been handed anything either, after winning the TUF show he has battled guys like Gray Maynard & Clay Guida to disappointing decision losses in fights where his opponent took advantage of the lackluster scoring of takedowns without following them up to pretty much stall their way to victory(damn I miss yellow cards!). Nate seems to have really come into his own after aborting a move up to Welterweight and his striking resembles that of his older brother more by the day. Fluid, if not full power, punches that come with alarming frequency and he does not ignore the body like so many MMA strikers do. Is Nate still a brown belt? I laugh every time I hear that, whatever color ties his gee, he is one of the most dangerous submission artists in the sport and he will not spend one second on his back where he isn’t trying to set up a finish.

This is one of the tougher fights for me to predict in some time. They are two high octane fighters that are hungry for greatness and while one is more athletic, the other is more technical. I expect the first round to be a thrill ride, look for Henderson to engage Diaz standing up and use his thunderous leg kicks while Nate pops out his 3 and 4 punch combinations. Nate should get the better of the stand up through time and that’s when Henderson will turn to his wrestling. His size and strength should enable him to secure quite a few of them and he is not a lay and pray fighter, so the scrambles on the ground will be awesome. Nate will constantly be going for submissions and Henderson will look to gnp his way to victory. Truth be told, I think they are both too tough to predict a finish either way. I’m looking at a five minute war and with a gun to my head; the takedowns from Henderson will be rewarded even if the action on the ground is a stalemate. Bendo by SD.

****

I make no pretenses when I write; I’m a fan first and foremost though I like to think I’m an objective one. That being said, BJ Penn is my boy. I’ve watched this guy for so long and respect his toughness and skill so much that I rarely see him in a fight I don’t think he will win. While his intentions have rightfully been questioned in the past, I don’t see the scenario where he isn’t coming back to give everything he has in training and in the cage. The days of his technical prowess, iron chin and flexibility being enough to handle larger guys is gone. Everyone is better rounded and these Welterweights are gigantic. You can’t half ass it and the Hawaiian legend knows it. He is coming to bring war.

Rory McDonald is a poster boy for that new breed, fighting out of the womb and as comfortable on the ground as he is on his feet. His lone loss came late in a fight where he was giving Carlos Condit more than he could handle. Since then he has notched three dominant wins including a punishing decision that convinced Nate Diaz to go back down to Lightweight. He’s young, huge, strong and lightning fast, a nightmare for anyone. This is precisely the kind of challenge that BJ Penn has looked for and thrived on throughout his HOF career.

There was a time when Penn was virtually impossible to get off of his feet, GSP did so over and over again in their rematch and did a lot to shatter that aura. A real key to this fight is how hard Penn can make takedowns for Rory. There is no way it won’t occur over the length of the fight and BJ can win off of his back, but he can’t let McDonald have the momentum he did against Diaz where it was just one after another. Rory is equally skilled in stand up, but Penn’s jab and straighter punches than is the norm for MMA can carve up most anyone. This fight should go back and forth like the Main Event and, though I hope I’m wrong, I expect Rory to bust open a close fight late in the third and earn the decision.

****

Yet another legend with no qualms about facing Godzilla in a fire fight is on this card, Mauricio Rua, taking on another uber prospect in Alexander Gustafsson. Shogun really doesn’t care what you put in front of him, as long as they are ready to throw hands. That’s exactly what Gustafson comes to do and the lanky youngster has precise kicks and punches to go with fluid movement and devastating knees.

They may as well call Rua the cat, because he has at least nine lives in the sport. Through terrible knee injuries to ugly upset defeats he has been written off more times than I can count. I’ve always stuck with him, hell; I recall reading that he had no chance against Chuck Liddell. How long ago was that? He’s up against a bigger man here but what I don’t know about Gustafsson is how does he handle a brawl? I think we will find out tomorrow night. My head is trying to overwhelm my heart, but the heart is fighting back. Can my heart really go 0-3 in a column? I don’t think so, Shogun takes a beating in the first, blood everywhere, lumps on lumps, then in the second he lands a right hand, a hook, knees, rights and lefts on the ground…Shogun RSC2!

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