UFC 157 Preview

This weekend marks a landmark for the UFC as Ronda Rousey and Liz Carmouche will contest the first fight involving women in the promotions history. I’ve seen complaints about it headlining, when in fact it would be poor business for this fight to be anywhere else on the card. Rousey is as main stream as it gets and there is no point in burying her on an undercard instead of seeing just how big her star power is right out of the gates. The rest of the card is stacked, so any consistent viewers that have an issue with this headlining will still purchase the card. This is about potential new viewers and it’s very good business.

I have to admit that I was slow to catch on to women’s MMA. I’ve never had a problem with fighters earning a living, but watching females being punched in the face was something tough for me to watch. Much like Dana White, Ronda Rousey caught my attention with her technical prowess and boisterous personality. The fight with Meisha Tate was fierce and exciting; Tate’s refusal to tap with her arm snapping was as gutsy as anything you’re going to see in a cage from a man or a woman. Strikeforce showcasing these fighters has opened my eyes, and I’m glad that women are getting the opportunity to apply their trade at the top of this sport.

There isn’t much to ponder when it comes to Rousey, her Olympic Judo background allows her to toss her opposition down and once there the arm bar has been a foregone conclusion. She makes it look so easy that she probably doesn’t get enough credit for how difficult it is to apply that move so early in fights against professional opposition whose entire training camps are focused on avoiding that position. She has holes in her stand up defense, but toughness doesn’t appear to be an issue. The question is what will happen if a top striker is able to avoid going to the ground, how will Ronda handle that?

Liz Carmouche is fearless in the cage and she is a top striker that is improving rapidly. She nearly had the Strikeforce title but succumbed to a late submission against Marloes Coenen. She also dropped a decision to the same Sarah Kaufman that Rousey wiped out inside of a minute. Liz needs to land something huge early on, be it a knee or a combination that lets Ronda know she is in for a fight. Easier said than done, because aggressive striking brings you in tight and opens you up for the Judo throws that set the wheels in motion. So footwork is essential to spoiling the coronation of the UFC’s newest meal ticket.

I have no doubt that Carmouche will come out and try and take the fight to Ronda on their feet. Rousey does have quick hands, so I expect she won’t be completely outgunned. Sometime in the opening round, Rousey takes her down and slaps on the arm bar. What can I say? It’s almost like a Pro Wrestling run; I don’t see it stopping here.

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That being said, the co-feature is my Main Event when Dan Henderson takes on Lyoto Machida in a tremendous contrast of styles with a Light Heavyweight title shot on the line. Dan’s age is a question before every fight at this stage in his career and Machida is the kind of opponent that could exploit that in a hurry if finally shows the signs of father time.

Anyone familiar with my work knows that I pull no punches; Dan Henderson is my favorite Mixed Martial Artist. His list of opposition is unparalleled in the sport and it looks like there was one more Brazilian bad ass he needs to take on. These days his wrestling is mainly used to keep fights standing where he can launch his nuclear bomb right hands with zero concern of what is coming at his iron chin. Dan’s stamina has faded over the last couple years, but he will ruthlessly bring heat as long as his tank is full. There is no reason to expect anything less than a complete ambush from Hendo at the opening bell. If he struggles to land and is getting the worst of the standup, he can always fall back on his wrestling chops to take the fight to the ground.

When Machida was the undefeated Light Heavyweight champion of the world, people complained about his safety first approach. He has definitely fought more aggressive during a less successful stretch, and he has potent kicks to go with his unorthodox movement. The bulrush stoppage loss to Rua is something to be wary of here. Lyoto needs to watch himself early, but at the same time he has to get Henderson’s respect. If you give Dan too much forward momentum it’s like fighting a runaway freight train. The game plan has to be to weather an early storm and pick up his offense as the fight progresses before going all out against an expectedly tired Henderson in the third round.

Hendo will come out fast and furious, Machida is an excellent counter-puncher so I expect him score with some nice strikes in the early going while Dan presses the pace. Near the end of an action packed opening round…….BOOM…….Dan effin Henderson……right hand death blow and a long deserved title shot.

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Josh Koscheck is an all-star wrestler who has fallen into a trap that many mixed martial artists with an overwhelming skill do. The guy loves to bang and he has a big right hand and an iron chin. However, he’s pretty much discarded the best aspect of his fighting and against Robbie Lawler he’d be wise to get back to what made him a contender in the first place.

Robbie is a slugger; he’s put on as many memorable battles as anyone. I just don’t see him as a top contender in the UFC. That doesn’t mean I don’t want to see him, but unless Koscheck fights a ridiculously stupid fight; Lawler is going to have his work cut out for him. He has to bank on Josh wanting to bang and look to end things with one of his patented bombs.

I really don’t know what to make of Koscheck’s motivation these days. It’s tough when you definitively can’t beat the champion in your weight class. Lawler is the kind of opponent that will get your juices flowing. After a rockem sock em opening round I’m hesitantly thinking that Kos will use his wrestling to secure several takedowns over the last two rounds and take the decision.

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Some brief thoughts on the rest of the card…

Ivan Menjivar has a previous win on cuts over Urijah Faber. The California kid was a guy I really didn’t like, but he consistently takes on the best and is always in entertaining fights. He’s won me over. Though he isn’t likely to wear UFC gold, he’s even less likely to lose to anyone that doesn’t have a strap around their waist. Faber by submission.

Anytime Josh Neer fights I’m happy to watch it. Another guy that isn’t a contender, but his fights are always awesome. Court McGee is an honest fighter that doesn’t excel in any denomination, but has few weaknesses. Neer by 3^rd round submission.

Bombs will be flying when Brendan Schaub takes on Lavar Johnson. I don’t expect this to see the second round no matter who wins, give me Johnson on the coin flip.

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