UFC 156 Preview

The annual Super Bowl eve card from the UFC always attempts to offer a stacked card, and this year is no exception. We have a Featherweight Super fight with two of the best fighters in the world, a compelling match up of big names at Light Heavyweight, two massive Heavyweights with a title shot on the line and a definitive Top 5 ranking at Welterweight between two guys on the cusp of title contention. While nothing can top this Baltimore boys anticipation for Sunday, this card will do it’s best to take my mind off of things for a few hours.

Jose Aldo is a scintillating talent, one of the most well rounded and lethal strikers in all of MMA; with fast hands and lethal kicks and knees. To top it off he is very difficult to take down and has shown quite capable of defending himself when he is taken down. The one chink in his armor could potentially be the stamina that comes with a fast paced twenty-five minute fight, but he has yet to come close to tasting defeat in the UFC.

In Frankie Edgar he is facing his toughest opponent, and he is adept at every aspect of MMA. I think Jose needs to work his leg kicks early and take some of the bounce out of Edgar’s superb footwork. That also comes with a price because Frankie has great timing and a predictable pattern of kicks will open him up for takedowns. That’s why he needs to mix in throwing hands and the occasional knee to keep Edgar off-balance.

Frankie is a guy that seems to be easy to bet against, but they are wagers that are damn hard to collect. His guts and endurance are tremendous strengths and he couples solid Boxing with dazzling footwork, a quick pace and excellent take downs. This is his first cut to 145, but I honestly don’t anticipate any issues there. What will be interesting to see is how he deals with facing a fighter of similar or greater speed. That’s an advantage he has always had and that mental adjustment can be alarming.

It is imperative that Frankie avoids getting off to a slow start, while Aldo doesn’t have the heavy hands of Gray Maynard he is an incredible finisher and Edgar needs to be wary of being careless in the early going. That doesn’t mean he needs to win the opening round, but a cautious approach would be wise early on. Edgar’s path to victory surely relies on takedowns but I think he may have an edge with his hands too. So given how difficult Jose is to take down early I’d like to see him box and move with mixing in a few attempts to get Aldo on his back early on. Then in the later rounds pour it on with his wrestling and attempt to dominate late.

This is a tough call, as a Main Event should be, I’ve gone a bit back and forth with it and I see a great fight with a lot of momentum shifts, scrambles and exchanges. Aldo is simply amazing when he’s fresh and I fully expect him to build a lead with leg kicks and knees while he bounces up quickly from any early takedowns. Assuming Edgar survives the early onslaught, the third round is the key to me and that round should be incredible with Edgar starting to be more successful with his wrestling and clinch game while Aldo presses with knees in the clinch and his potent kicks. The pace will get to Jose and Frankie will actually keep him down more in the fourth and fifth rounds leading to a hotly contested split decision that goes the way of Aldo. I’ll call it right now, run it back!

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Anyone familiar with my work knows I’m a Rashad Evans and a Pride fan, so I’m definitely looking forward to his clash with Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. Evans brings a level of talent and vulnerability that always makes his fights at least somewhat entertaining to me. He is an excellent striker, but his chin leaves him vulnerable there so I’d expect him to try and wrestle his way to a win here.

Little Nog is tough as nails and one of the more accomplished guys in the UFC as far as hands go. Like his brother, these Brazilian bad asses are written off more times than you can fit on a page. He can finish a fight quickly with his hands and has great defense on his back even though he isn’t overly impossible to take down. The reason for that is he is really committed to his punches, which can be as good for Evans’ wrestling as it could be bad for him on his feet.

Expect Evans to start out striking and his speed will see him land on the iron chin of Nogueira, somewhere during this a counter shot rocks Evans and forces him on the defensive where he will land a takedown and attempt to hold Nog down while he employs GnP. Rashad is adept at avoiding submissions, so in full wrestling mode I expect him to control the contest in spite of some sketchy moments on his feet and take the UD.

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Allistair Overeem is a violent front runner, when adversity rears its head I’ve yet to see him respond favorably to it. Antonio Silva matches him in size and is an above average striker with a tremendous top game if he finds himself over you. I’m thinking that Silva is showing some wear and tear after a nice run in Strikeforce and I’m looking for a fresh Overeem to catch him with something powerful early and finish the job from the top in the opening round.

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Jon Fitch vs Demian Maia is a classic wrestler against BJJ expert that can make the casual fans boo and the rest of us marvel. They’re both at the top of their initial fields and have worked diligently on their striking. I’m expecting Fitch to arrogantly use his wrestling to take down a willing Maia early on and when he does Jon will barely escape some of the legendary submissions of the Brazilian in a scrambling ground based opening round. Often times those stalemates lead to stand up and Jon is a bit tighter there, so I expect him to get the better of the stand up while Maia tries to take down the wrestler. I’m ever so close to calling an opening round submission for Maia, but I’ve got to go with Fitch by close decision.

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If there was one athlete from another sport that I’d love to see in MMA, it’s Ray Lewis. He was an all-state wrestler in High School for the specific purpose of wiping out his estranged fathers records. That and his will to win and be great would have made him a dominant force in my eyes. The 49ers are a very tough team and it should be a great game. Yet sometimes, destiny calls. 27-17 Ravens!

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