Staff Picks: UFC on FOX 5

J.C. Casarez – Los Angeles

Ben Henderson vs Nate Diaz (Lightweight Title Fight)

As much as fans and some experts want to believe this fight is a close one I don’t agree. Diaz has a calculated aggression that works to break his opponents. The advantages in boxing will show. The work with boxing coach Richard Perez and the sparring sessions with some of Northern California’s best boxers will show. When the fight hits the ground, Diaz will look for the opportunity to catch the defending champion in sub or force him to take the fight to their feet. Diaz by 3rd round stoppage from strikes.

Alexander Gustafsson vs Mauricio Rua

So much is on the line for the rising star in Gustafsson, but is he ready for the challenge. In his last victory over Thiago Silva there were moments were he zigged instead of zagging but the momentum was too much for Silva to capitalize but against a legend like Rua, those mistakes can’t be made. The advantages in length and height will be there early but expect Rua to make adjustments as in the Vera fight and force the younger fighter into exchanges that will favor the former champion. Rua via strikes in the 3rd round.

Rory MacDonald vs B.J. Penn

This is the definition of a cross roads fight. With a veteran great in B.J. Penn making a last stand against a young lion in Rory MacDonald. While Penn hasn’t looked great since his run as Lightweight champion, something needs to be examined into why he lost those fights.He has made a change in his training team, using an all star cast of training partners to help him prepare for MacDonald. Penn’s work on his wrestling and sharpening of his jiu jitsu will help him avoid damage on the ground. MacDonald’s weakness comes in the stand up where he has tried to hide the flaw by taking opponents down to avoid prolonged stand up wars. This is an area where Penn can use his experience and boxing to come after MacDonald forcing him to fight going backwards. This will be the key to the fight. Penn will get the better of the stand up and have enough moments on the ground to win a decision.

Armando Romo Jr. – Las Vegas

Benson Henderson vs. Nate Diaz

(Lightweight Title Fight)

Henderson is undefeated ever since stepping into the Octagon and this fact won’t change in Seattle. Against Nate Diaz he has an opponent who he won’t have to chase down and while Nate isn’t a walk in the park for any fighter, Henderson excels at everything that has helped topple Nate throughout his MMA career: movement and superior wrestling. These factors will be the keys to Henderson’s victory in the main event of UFC on FOX. Whatever offense that Nate brings, Benson’s superior wrestling will negate seeing as how Nate has always lacked in that department. Henderson glides in an out of the pocket by switching stances, popping his jab and flicking leg kicks at his opponents. This will keep Nate guessing as to what’s coming next and he’ll see the canvas many a time similar to the UFC 141 Diaz vs. Cerrone fight where “Cowboy” picked Nate off using solid Muay Thai. The Diaz Brothers have a reputation for their unbelievable cardiovascular tank however, if anyone can match that its Benson who will out strike and out work his foe on his way to a unanimous decision victory.

Alexander Gustafsson vs Mauricio Rua
A few years ago, Rua wouldn’t be a 2 to 1 underdog going into this fight. But countless wars in PrideFC and the UFC have finally caught up to this living legend. In the past he destroyed elite fighters with a violent harmony of strikes and aggression or submitted defenseless prey when he opted to showcase his amazing ground game. Nonetheless, that was then and this is now. Rua has already shown signs of that dying flame in his losses to ex-UFC title holder, Forrest Griffin or 205-pound kingpin, Jon Jones. It is true that Alexander isn’t a former champion but he does have a similar height and reach as Jones so he will follow the “Bones” Jones blueprint to stay on the outside when needed and strike with knees in the clinch and maintain top control to break “Shogun” down over the course of three rounds. Alexander will acquire his signature win at the Key Arena with a one sided verdict over Rua.

“The Prodigy” BJ Penn vs. Rory MacDonald

Call me crazy but I have to go with Penn on this one. Sure, he might be coming off of losses to Nick Diaz and Frankie Edgar, a 1st round KO over Matt Hughes and a draw to Fitch but something tells me Penn has one more highlight reel finish left in him similar to his days as 155-pound and 170-pound champion. Be it a flying knee like the one he used to stop Sean Sherk or the rear naked chokes over Jens or Florian, Penn will surprise Rory this weekend. Yes MacDonald is on the rise and has demolished just about anyone put in his way but I’m taking Penn by finish somewhere in the 1st or 2nd round.

Francisco Guzman – New York

Henderson vs Diaz

A tough fight to call because both men come to bring it. I believe that Henderson size will make the difference in this fight like it did against Frankie Edgar in both fights. I do think that Edgar did enough to pull out a win in his last fight with Henderson despite losing on the judges scorecards. Edgar outworked him with movement and counter strikes. Now Nate is a physically a lanky but is a good striker. If its a physical fight Henderson wins but if Diaz use his footwork and out strikes Henderson than he will be able to pull out the win. I don’t believe Nate will fight that kind of fight. He is too much of a banger and usually throws strategy out the window. Henderson probably by 3rd round knockout.

Gustafsson vs Rua

Another tough one to call because you can never count out Rua. Gustafsson is coming off a 5 fight winning streak so the momentum is on his side. Rua stamina seemed to be in question in his 4th round TKO over Brandon Vera. His stamina was also in question when he face Dan Henderson losing a 5 round unanimous decision. I think Gustafsson outworks Rua and gets the decision.

Penn vs MacDonald

Penn is a legend in the sport but his day as one of the greatest to ever do it is probably over. In his lost over Nick Diaz back in October, 2011 he seemed to have lost it after beating up Diaz in the first round of that fight. A bloody Diaz came back from that barrage of punches to inflict punishment on a spent BJ Penn for the rest of the fight winning a unanimous decision. MacDonald has only one loss on his record and that is to Carlos Conduit who just lost to fellow Canadian George St. Pierre. Penn will start out strong but MacDonald will whether the storm and then he will out work Penn to edge out a decision. MacDonald by unanimous decision.