Money Making Armando’s look at: UFC on FOX 8 Johnson vs. Moraga

Money Making Armando’s look at: UFC on FOX 8 Johnson vs. Moraga

Before writing off July and prepping for the countless events that will come our way in August gang, let’s take a gander at the free event on FOX tomorrow night from the Key Arena in Seattle, Washington which will be headlined by the 125-pound title fight between home town favorite and UFC champion, Demetrious Johnson, against top-ranked challenger, John Moraga.  In what might be a night of upsets, here are some well-calculated picks along with the most current odds for the entire card including the preliminaries on FX to the main card on FOX.

Demetrious Johnson (17-2-1) vs. John Moraga (13-1) Flyweight Championship Bout

Demetrious Johnson (-500) should hold on to his UFC belt by an increasing margin the longer this furious flyweight fight goes. His conditioning is supernatural, his movement is ninja-like and his ability to mix up his offense and keep fighters guessing is his best weapon to continue ruling as the flyweight king for many a years to come. If John Moraga (+375) can make something very significant happen in rounds 1 or 2 implementing his ruthless wrestling and heavy strikes, then he has a shot at the upset and taking the UFC gold back to his home in Phoenix but realistically he has never seen a fighter the likes of Johnson. The Arizonians’ lack of main event as well as 5-round experience in this contest only favors the champion due to Demetrious’ endless gas tank which is unmatched anywhere in their division. Johnson should retain his UFC crown in front of the hometown crowd by a wide decision.

Rory MacDonald (14-1) vs. Jake Ellenberger (29-6) Welterweight Bout  

Jake Ellenberger (+200) is the underdog in this fight simply because Rory MacDonald (-250) brings a higher winning percentage to the table in his most recent UFC outings. However, this 170-pound match is allot closer than what it reads on paper. Yes, young Macdonald can only get better as he matures inside the cage on his way to title contention but Ellenberger has all the tools necessary to send the 24-year old superstar packing. Every aspect of Rory’s wrestling  and stand-up ability will be questioned and he will have to capitalize on it thus planting Jake on his back to avoid those bricks that Ellenberger calls hands. This is more of a pick-em fight so I’m real curious to see if the sports books are right on making Rory a noticeable favorite over a fighter as elite and seasoned as Ellenberger. im going with what will be the most talked about upsest this month other than UFC 162: Silva vs. Weidman as Ellenberger triumphs by 1^st round KO in a shocking upset that foils MacDonald’s plans and catapults Jake into the co-main event slot at UFC 167 St Pierre vs. Hendricks in November.  

Robbie Lawler (20-9) vs. Bobby Voelker (24-9) Welterweight Bout 

Plain and simple, this will be an amazing scrap. No fancy ground battle as the two powerhouses tangle for position and control in a jiujitsu chess match, these savage welterweights are going to come forward like trains traveling on the same track and there will be a horrible wreck. In this match more than likely waking up to find the ring doctor’s flashlight in his face will be the underprepared Voleker  (+240), who stepped in on two weeks’ notice to challenge the former Strikeforce talent in Lawler (-300). Nevertheless, this fight will be extremely entertaining for every second of its duration since it pits two warrior’s that enjoy exchanging fire in the pocket. It’s likely that Lawler catches Voelker clean with an overhand right or left hook and changes the entire dynamic of the fight, but Bobby won’t go away quietly and knows that Robbie’s daunting inconsistency is as sporadic as anyone’s in the UFC so an upset is not totally out of the question. We’ll go with Lawler by some type of KO or submission finish before the match ends.

Liz Carmouche (7-3) vs. Jessica Andrade (9-2) Women’s Bantamweight Bout

Liz Carmouche (-650) was 10 seconds shy of being the first combatant to take UFC bantamweight queen ,Ronda Rousey, into the 2^nd round for their championship clash at UFC 157 in February of this year and even less time short of pulling of the submission upset but fate had other plans for Camouche. Maybe her time is not now but the former Marine’s stock skyrocketed and the loss only made her a target for anyone else looking to move up the ladder in the newly minted women’s 135-pound weight division. Well, promotional newcomer, Andrade will look to do just that behind her deadly striking and composed aggression. Still, the jump from the minor leagues to the majors might be a bit much in her debut as Carmouche uses her snapping leg kicks and 1-2 combinations to set up takedowns on her way to a points win on the scorecards. If the fight gets to competitive during the standing exchanges, Carmouche can easily resort to her ground game and cruise to a unanimous decision triumph.  

Michael Chiesa (9-0) vs.  Jorge Masvidal (24-7) Lightweight Bout

The winner of The Ultimate Fighter: Team Cruz vs. Team Faber season, Michael Chiesa (+240) plans to continue in his winning ways since making a successful 1^st round submission debut earlier this year at UFC 157: Rousey vs. Carmouche . However, this will be various notches up in competition when he steps into the cage against former Strikeforce title contender, Masvidal (-300). Jorge posses a more lethal guard, better and crisper boxing as well as splendid footwork compared to Chiesa but, what will be the deciding factor in this battle of lightweights is: which one desires a 2-fight win streak the most.  Chiesa defied the odds time and time again as he upset every one of his opponents in the TUF house on his way to becoming The Ultimate Fighter winner yet, the type of challenge that Masvidal presents will sharpen the tool known as Chiesa or break him down completely if he enters the Octagon with a false sense of confidence. Jorge Masvidal walks away with this one via split decision in what should be a back-and-forth thriller.

Editor’s note:  Jorge Masvidal came in over weight by 1.5 pounds at the weigh in.

Danny Castillo (15-5) vs. Tim Means (18-4-1) Lightweight Bout

Castillo (-230) is your definition of an MMA grinder and a work horse. His pace is tremendous and his conditioning is unbelievable for his size as he cuts about 15 pounds to make the lightweight limit. That can serve him well when colliding with someone the caliber of Means  (+185) who loves to relentlessly chip away at his opponents in order to capture the victory. Needless to say, the former WEC standout, Castillo, should implement almost a malicious assault on Means to cut him down stanza after stanza into what might possibly be a 3^rd round ground and pound TKO finish by the man they refer to as “Last Call”. Danny Castillo takes this one by clear cut decision or possibly finish should he find the opening.

Editor’s note: Tim Means came in over weight by 4 pounds at the weigh in.

Mac Danzing  (22-10-1) vs. Melvin Guillard  (47-13-3) Lightweight Bout

Danzing (EVEN) is always a gamer and is very well rounded with surprisingly heavy hands that are misleading in their KO power. A little over a year ago “The Young Assassin” Guillard (-120) personified his moniker as he crafted a sinister 5-fight win streak as he terrorized the UFC’s lightweight division but after an upset loss to Joe Lauzon at UFC 136 in October of 2011, everything has gone downhill  in the form of a 1^st round KO loss to Donald Cerrone  at UFC 150 last summer to a decision loss at the hands of former WEC champion, Jamie Varner at UFC 155 this past December. Guillard is not only on a losing streak but he is the man without a steady gym since leaving Jackson’s MMA and the Blackzillians to find new training grounds. Danzing has the tools and mental fortitude to grind out a unanimous decision over Guillard as long as Mac makes it out of the first round and avoids his foe’s game changing strikes.

Yves Edwards (42-19-1) vs. Daron Cruickshank (12-3) Lightweight bout

Here goes another upset special. Edwards (+115) has over 60 fights worth of knowledge so you can’t ever count him out of a match unless we know for sure he is being tested by someone with an equal level of experience.  This is your typical cross roads fight were destiny either wants to test Daron (-145) to see if he is marketable enough to be put on a PPV card in the near future or to see if Edwards can work his way back to the same PPV slot by putting an up and comer through the ringer and muscling out a clear cut unanimous verdict or maybe even a high light reel KO. with that being said, If know Cruickshank, he will want that same highlight reel finish as well thus adding a recognizable name like Yves would really look prestigious on his resume, I just don’t see it happening. Edwards gets this one on points after 3 highly entertaining, fast-paced rounds.

Julie Kedize ( 16-11 ) vs.  Germaine De Randamie (3-2) Women’s Bantamweight bout

Point blank period: This fight should steal the show since Randamie (-120) has fantastic stand-up and puts on exciting fights as the diamond in the rough that she is which is why the UFC decided to pick her up. However ,I do know that the Greg Jackson trained Kedzie (EVEN)is surrounded by nothing but polished diamonds in Albuquerque, New Mexico; the stomping grounds of Jon Jones, Cub Swanson, Georges St. Pierre, Clay Guida, Donald Cerrone and Travis Browne to name a few.  Kedzie is relentless in her approach and does not fear a fight going to the ground, turning into a grappling match or putting on a show for the UFC aficionados with dazzling striking. We are going with the gentle upset on this one as Julie starts off slow but finds her rhythm in the 2^nd round and probably finishes her foe in the 3^rd round with a nasty armbar submission.

Ed Herman (20-7) vs. Trevor Smith (10-3) Middleweight bout

Smith (+200) is another accomplished export from the Strikeforce brand and is one of the last soldiers to make the journey from the Hexagon cage over to the Octagon trenches. He has the ability to string together a few wins before being outmatched by usually higher skilled fighters or more determined opposition, this can be said for anyone in the game of course but with that being stated what’s disappointing is that Smith could achieve so much more if he applied himself.  This can be his coming out party over a seasoned vet like Herman (-250) or probably the UFC giving Ed a simpler assignment after he stepped in to take on a top 5 welterweight in Ronaldo Souza not too long ago to get smashed in 1 round. Herman is better than Smith in every aspect of their games but who knows if the bright lights hinder Smith or enhance his performance making the most of his UFC debut. Herman won’t be an easy hurdle for Smith as Ed picks up that unanimous decision win.

Aaron Riley (29-13-1) vs. Justin Salas (10-4) Lightweight bout

Riley (+200) is the veteran in this one and the last time that we saw him in the cage it was September of 2011 at UFC 135 as he took on the talented Tony Ferguson but lost via TKO once his jaw was broken from some punishing shots.  I always pick against fighters coming off of a layoff and rarely does being away from the Octagon for almost 2 years do anyone any good but he isn’t getting too much money so the sports books know that he is a live dog.  Justin (-250) is good but not great thus reflected by his durability and raw talent which have taken him this far in his career therefore this is a true test for him tomorrow to see just how far Salas has evolved as a profession MMA fighter.  Justin should capture a decision, maybe even a split and I’m picking him mainly because of Aaron’s layoff.

John “Prince” Albert (7-4)  vs. Yaotzin Meza (18-8) Bantamweight bout

Albert (-250)  did really well while on his time on The Ultimate Fighter season 14 showing a diverse skill set and willingness to engage any man that stepped in front of him once the cage door shut. He comes to bang and isn’t afraid to trade, get hit or take the fight to the ground. He is the opening bout so at least he and Meza (+ 200) won’t have to deal with the jitters of waiting for their fight to go one somewhere down the latter portion of the card. Meza can get reckless at times and go for broke rather than keep his composure and his record reflects just that.  Albert should be able to get the win and also wind up on the year end UFC event if he can get the TKO finish or one-sided decision.

Editor’s note: John Albert came in over by 2 pounds at the weigh in.