Money Making Armando’s Picks – UFC 205: Alvarez vs. McGregor Edition

Over used hyperbole and embellished comparisons aside, on paper the UFC 205: Alvarez vs. McGregor pay-per-view is definitely a solid candidate for combat sports event of the year. It truly has it all from the history-making significance of being the first UFC card to take place at Madison Square Garden, the stacked name recognition and three title bouts, celebrity appeal and important details from the championship milestone potential all the way down to the ghost of UFC200 lurking in the shadows.

What I mean by that is that the original structure of UFC 200 which had its 3 title matches; two male and one female and a main event slot filled by Conor McGregor never got to unfold this past July. At the time Daniel Cormier vs. Jon Jones 2 fell off and so did McGregor and what remained was Jose Aldo vs. Frankie Edgar 2 and Miesha Tate vs. Amanda Nunes. Ironically enough, UFC 205 has no rematches whatsoever; it’s a fresh card from top to bottom.

With that being said the time to strike in Madison Square Garden is now and the UFC is bringing the heat in what may very well be their first 2 million buys PPV. Here is one fan’s calculated pick for bragging rights in the UFC 205 headliner this Saturday as the Octagon plants its flag in The Big Apple.

“The Underground King” Eddie Alvarez (28-4) vs. “The Notorious” Conor McGregor (20-3)
UFC Lightweight Bout – 5 Rounds
A Guaranteed Classic:
First things first, in this battle we get to see the much anticipated and rare, “champion vs. champion” subtext materialize in the UFC cage. We got it when George St Pierre fought BJ Penn, Dan Henderson took on Anderson Silva and for the unification matches in Jose Aldo vs. Conor McGregor, Lesnar vs. Carwin and Matt Serra vs. Georges St Pierre.

This one is just as intriguing, if not more so because Eddie Alvarez (+140) is defending his recently acquired 155lbs crown and Conor McGregor (-160) is moving up from his domain as king of the featherweights to challenge Eddie as well as history. If anyone can unify the 145-pound belt last December against the certified greatest 145er of the last decade in Jose Aldo via 13-second KO, then jump up to fight two divisions above his natural weight against Nate Diaz, twice, then slide back down to another weight and successfully capture another UFC title simultaneously it’s probably a technically sound, calculated lunatic like “Mystic Mac”.

Too Much And Too Soon?
However, at the core of this bout sits the conundrum. Did the brash Irishman really crunch the numbers correctly here? As far as their last bouts go Alvarez walked away untouched following a 1-round thrashing of then champion, Rafael dos Anjos four months ago while McGregor went to war with Nate Diaz in August at UFC 202 for 25 minutes. Bumped, bruised and battered the brash Irishman limped out of the Octagon that night visibly spent and requiring crutches to make it to the post-fight press conference. I don’t feel that he properly gave his body the time to heal over the last 12 weeks and it does not help at all that he is fighting on Eastern time after his last 4 bouts where Pacific Time. I bring that up especially since Philadelphia, Pennsylvania’s Alvarez will not only have relative home field advantage but be better acclimated to the time zone, climate change and weather.

Level Of Opposition
Lastly, Alvarez has seen a murderer’s row of opponents on his way to the top of the lightweight mountain. He walked through then belt holder and 4-1 favorite dos Anjos in less than 5 minutes, and out worked, out hustled and out smarted former Strikeforce champion, Gilbert Melendez and former WEC and UFC champion, Anthony Pettis via decision verdicts; if there is any variation of style in the weight class from striker, boxer, grappler, counter-puncher and wrestler to analyze as well as decipher Alvarez has seen it and conquered it.

While many experts and analysts will argue that Conor has easily trumped most of his Octagon opposition, and yes he did stop Diego Brandao, Denis Siver, Dustin Poirier, Chad Mendes and Jose Aldo in 2 rounds or less by KO, that lack of cage time might finally backfire here. I’m not overlooking his classic stand up war this past August opposite Nate Diaz nor Conor’s tenacity and will, I am simply putting into perspective that everything before that was 10 minutes of action in the Octagon or less and in the UFC 202 headliner the Californian fished for four takedowns at the most letting McGregor work at his desired pace yet, had his back along the cage wall drastically more than he should have allowed. Alvarez is a certified grinder, you give him that type of space to work and he will take you down 9 times out of 10. If “The Notorious One” was planted on his back without much resistance by the smaller man in Chad Mendes at UFC 189, how many times will Eddie accomplish that same task and with relative ease?

How It Plays Out
The Puerto Rican-Irishman might get off to a slow start against a very game and motivated Conor McGregor in order to force things past round 1. The southpaw will pursue constantly during the opening frame, throw his hands up in frustration trying to taunt his foe into a brawl as Alvarez slips and dodges his man’s wide rights and hook and crane kicks. Using angles and upper body movement like a prime Frankie Edgar, Alvarez should disrupt McGregor’s timing then throw off his rhythm behind a crisp jab.

By rounds 2 and 3, regardless of a knock down on either side, the featherweight champion could get careless trying to force an opening while Alvarez measures him with his counter right hook and double jab to get into his foe’s chest, or catch a low leg kick to initiate a takedown along the cage wall. McGregor will get a judge to side by him simply because of coming forward but the other two won’t give him credit for missing on his jabs and crosses. With McGregor sliding forward allot more in that upright, European-style boxing stance he might also become more susceptible to single and double leg takedowns while he desperately switches stances during the championship rounds.

Fans will boo and want a war but once Alvarez finds his rhythm following the first half of the title tilt it will be a barrage of low leg kicks, dirty box via clinch then multiple takedowns, primarily along the cage wall, that gets the job done on his way to a triumphant points verdict and defense of his UFC lightweight crown.

For those fight fans quick to mint Conor McGregor as a two-division champion, they must have already forgot that in this very month the Chicago Cubs and Donald Trump did what was initially perceived as impossible, yet they still shocked the world by winning in their respective fields. Not even the great “Mystic Mac” could have predicted those two memorable victories.

The man known as “The Underground King” has made a living off of proving odds makers wrong lately and it won’t stop Saturday night; the pick here is Eddie Alvarez by split decision with scores of 48-47, 47-48 and 49-46.